US midterms 2026: should election headlines change your long-term plan?

US elections make loud headlines. History says they rarely knock a long-term plan off course, and reacting to them often does more harm than the vote.

America holds its midterm elections on 3 November 2026. For the next few weeks, the coverage will be hard to avoid. If you have a pension or investments, it’s natural to wonder whether any of it should change what you do with your money. For most people with a long-term plan, the answer is no.

Why do US elections affect a UK pension?

Many UK pensions and investment funds hold a large share of US companies. Global funds are usually weighted by the size of each company, and the biggest companies in the world are mostly American. So even if you’ve never bought a US share directly, a fair part of your pension may well be invested there.

That’s why US politics can feel personal. When American markets move, many UK portfolios move with them.

What has happened to markets after past midterms?

The US has held midterm elections every four years for over a century. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which runs the S&P 500 index of large US companies, has looked at how that index performed in the 12 months after each midterm since 1926. In that time, it ended those 12 months lower only twice: after the 1930 and 1938 elections (source).

That’s an interesting pattern. It isn’t a promise. Both of the negative years fell during the Great Depression, which says more about the economy at the time than about elections. And with only a couple of dozen midterms to look at, the sample is small.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. What the record does show is that elections, on their own, have not been a dependable reason to sell.

Is the bigger risk the election, or how you react to it?

For most investors, it’s the reaction.

Selling ahead of a vote means making two calls correctly: when to get out, and when to get back in. Miss the second one and you can sit in cash while markets recover without you. A plan built over decades can be dented by a decision made in a week.

Election results also tend to be priced in quickly. By the time a headline tells you what happened, markets have usually already moved.

That doesn’t mean ignoring the news. It means keeping it in proportion. A long-term plan is designed to ride through elections, interest rate changes and short-term market falls, because it assumes they will happen.

What should you check instead?

If the coverage has you thinking about your money, these are better questions than “who will win?”:

• Do you know how much of your pension is in US shares? If a few large American companies make up a big part of it, that matters more than any single election.
• Is your plan still right for your timeline? Someone retiring in two years should usually hold their money differently from someone retiring in twenty.
• Do you have enough in cash for short-term needs? Having a cash buffer means you’re not forced to sell investments at a bad moment.
• When did you last review your plan? Big life changes affect your plan far more than politics does.

What does this mean for you?

Elections come round every two years in the US. Your plan should be built to cope with every one of them, not rebuilt around each result.

Headlines come and go. If you’d like to check your plan is built to ride them out, your Sedulo Wealth adviser’s a call away.

FAQ

When are the 2026 US midterm elections?

The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday 3 November 2026. They decide all seats in the House of Representatives and around a third of the Senate. The presidency is not on the ballot, which is why they are called midterms: they fall halfway through a president’s four-year term.

Should I sell my investments before a US election?

For most long-term investors, no. Selling ahead of an election means you have to judge both when to sell and when to buy back in, and getting the second call wrong can cost more than any dip you avoided. If you’re worried about how your money is invested, speak to your adviser before making changes.

Does a US election affect UK pensions?

It can, indirectly. Many UK pensions hold global funds with a large share in US companies, so movements in US markets show up in UK pension values. The effect depends on how your own pension is invested, which your provider or adviser can tell you.

Do markets always rise after midterm elections?

No. US shares have risen in most 12-month periods after a midterm since 1926, but not all of them. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns, and many things besides elections move markets, including interest rates, company earnings and the wider economy.

How can I find out how much of my pension is in US shares?

Your pension provider’s fund factsheets usually show a breakdown by country or region. They are often available in your online account or on the fund manager’s website. An adviser can pull this together across all your pensions and investments and show you the overall picture.

Is it ever right to change my investments because of politics?

Occasionally a political decision directly affects your plan, for example a change to pension or tax rules. That’s a reason to review your plan with an adviser, not to react to the headline. Changes driven by who wins an election, rather than by your own goals and timeline, rarely serve a long-term plan well.

About the author

Sedulo Wealth is the wealth planning business within Sedulo Group, a UK business advisory firm. Its advisers help individuals and business owners plan for retirement, manage pensions and investments, and make sure their wealth plans work alongside their tax and business affairs. Sedulo Wealth Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.